🏡 Phoenix Housing Market Update – October 2025: A Reset Month with Buyers in Control

By Jonathan Baer, Dominion Group Properties
Last updated October 6, 2025

A Quick Snapshot

The latest Cromford Report shows that the Phoenix housing market hit the reset button in September. Here are the key numbers as of October 1, 2025, compared to this time last year:

• Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 24,450 → up 25% year-over-year
• Pending Listings: 4,274 → down 1.7% from last year, up 3% from last month
• Monthly Sales: 6,141 → up 12% year-over-year
• Average $/Sq. Ft.: $287.14 → up 0.8% from last year
• Median Price: $454,000 → up 2.7% year-over-year

It’s a Reset Month — and Buyers Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

September gave the market a quick boost when interest rates dipped for a couple of weeks, but the momentum slowed once rates ticked back up. What we’re seeing now is a market in reset mode — steady but cautious.

Buyers are clearly in control right now. Demand is improving, but it’s still touch and go, and there’s a noticeable amount of hesitation in the air.

Many homes are going under contract only to fall out during the inspection period — and those failed escrows are reflected in the Cromford data. Buyers are more demanding and less forgiving than they were a year or two ago.

The New Buyer Mindset

Today’s buyers feel the market is soft — and they’re acting accordingly:

• Expecting broker compensation as part of the negotiation
• Requesting seller-paid closing costs more frequently
• Passing on homes that need major repairs or upgrades

This isn’t a “buy anything and it’ll sell” market anymore. It’s a condition, pricing, and presentation market. Sellers who understand that are still getting results; those who don’t are watching from the sidelines.

Inventory Keeps Climbing

Inventory rose more than 5% in September and now stands about 25% higher than last year. That’s a healthy increase — and it’s giving buyers plenty of leverage.

For sellers, that means more competition and the need to stand out. Pricing correctly out of the gate matters more than ever because buyers now have the luxury of walking away.

Prices Find Their Footing — But the Mix Matters

After four months of declines, prices ticked back up slightly:

• Median: $454,000
• Average: $287 per sq. ft.

However, part of that bump is driven by luxury home sales, which have picked up and nudged averages higher. For most sellers under $1M, it’s better to call this a flat-to-slightly-up market — stable, not surging.

Jonathan’s Take

This month feels like a true market reset. We’re seeing:

• A more balanced playing field between buyers and sellers
• Increased inventory giving buyers more options
• And buyers who are cautious, but ready to act when the right home comes along

The good news is that demand is still there — it just comes with conditions.

If you’re a seller, prepare for tougher negotiations. Expect buyers to ask for closing cost help, rate buydowns, or repairs. If you’re a buyer, this is your moment — you have more choices, more negotiating power, and the ability to buy without the frenzy of 2021–2022.

Final Thoughts

October is shaping up to be a month of balance — and a preview of what a “normal” Phoenix market might finally look like again. It’s not hot, it’s not cold — it’s measured, data-driven, and buyer-focused.

Phoenix Housing Market FAQs – October 2025