Navigating the Phoenix Housing Market: September 2024
The Phoenix housing market continues to evolve in September 2024, and whether you're a buyer or seller, understanding the current landscape is crucial. The market has seen some interesting shifts in key metrics, from declining sold listings to a sharp rise in active listings. If you're navigating the real estate market in Phoenix this month, here's a breakdown of the trends and what they mean for you.
Sold Listings: A Year-Over-Year Decline of 8.95%
Phoenix has experienced a noticeable decline in the number of sold listings, dropping by 8.95% year-over-year. This reduction in sold properties is indicative of the market cooling down, and it’s a trend that cannot be ignored.
One factor behind the reduction in sold listings is buyer hesitation. With high interest rates and economic uncertainty, potential buyers are more cautious. The once red-hot market that thrived on rapid sales has slowed down considerably. This is reflected in not only fewer sold listings but also a general stall in price growth.
Despite this decline in activity, there hasn't been a corresponding drop in home prices. Instead, pricing growth has essentially stalled, both in terms of average and median prices. According to the August 2024 data:
- The average price per square foot decreased by 0.32% month-over-month and has remained relatively flat year-over-year, showing a marginal 0.86% increase.
- The median price per square foot saw a slight dip of 0.56% month-over-month and is only up by 0.12% year-over-year.
In short, while the number of sales is down, pricing has remained stable, but the lack of significant growth suggests that sellers no longer have the upper hand they once did.
Active Listings Surge by 63.86%
On the flip side, the number of active listings has surged by a remarkable 63.86% year-over-year. This influx of homes hitting the market may seem like good news for buyers, as more options are becoming available, but there’s a catch—prices are declining. Both average and median home prices are slowly edging downward.
- The average price per square foot for active listings declined by 0.80% month-over-month and by 2.94% year-over-year.
- Similarly, the median price per square foot saw a slight decrease of 0.19% month-over-month and a year-over-year dip of 0.25%.
This increase in listings combined with declining prices suggests that sellers are becoming more willing to negotiate and adjust their expectations to secure a sale. It’s a signal that the market is transitioning from a seller’s market to a more balanced one, if not tipping in favor of buyers.
For sellers, this trend means pricing your home competitively is more important than ever. With more homes on the market, buyers have more choices, making it crucial for sellers to focus on factors like pricing, presentation, and value.
Under Contract Listings Down 4.95%: Buyers Hesitate
Another indicator of buyer hesitation is the 4.95% decline in under-contract listings compared to last year. While the drop isn’t massive, it signals that fewer buyers are committing to purchasing homes.
Several factors contribute to this reluctance:
- High interest rates are pushing many potential buyers out of the market or causing them to rethink their decision.
- Economic concerns are causing buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Whether it's uncertainty in the job market, inflation, or worries about the broader economy, some buyers are sitting on the sidelines until conditions improve.
- The upcoming presidential election is adding another layer of uncertainty. Elections can have a significant impact on the economy, interest rates, and housing policies, which may lead some buyers to hold off until there’s more clarity.
Days on Market Increases
Homes are staying on the market longer than they did a year ago. The average days on market (DOM) has increased by 25.45%, from 55 days last year to 69 days this year. Similarly, the median DOM has climbed by 38.89%, up to 50 days compared to 36 days last year.
This increase in days on market further supports the notion that the market is slowing. Buyers aren’t rushing to snap up homes, and sellers are waiting longer to receive offers. In the past, homes would fly off the market in a matter of days, but now, patience is key for sellers.
Conclusion: Why the Phoenix Market is Slowing
The Phoenix housing market is in a state of transition, and the reasons for the slowdown are multifaceted:
- The Economy: Economic uncertainty and inflation have left many buyers unsure of the future. High costs of living, combined with fears of a recession, are causing potential buyers to hold back.
- High Interest Rates: Rising mortgage rates have made homes less affordable for many buyers. With interest rates significantly higher than they were a few years ago, monthly mortgage payments are now out of reach for some, or simply unattractive for those hoping for a better rate.
- The Presidential Election: As we approach the 2024 presidential election, uncertainty looms. Many potential buyers and sellers may be waiting to see the election outcome and its potential impacts on the economy and housing policies.
For sellers, this means adjusting strategies. Pricing will be a critical factor in attracting buyers. Sellers need to focus on making their homes stand out in a crowded market. This could mean investing in home improvements or staging to make a property more appealing. Affordability is key, and sellers may need to be more flexible when negotiating with buyers.
For buyers, the current market offers a unique opportunity. With more homes to choose from and declining prices, buyers who can afford to purchase now might find themselves in a good position. However, the caveat is that waiting too long could lead to more competition in the future as the market potentially picks up again after the election or if interest rates stabilize.
Now is a great time to buy if you can. But if you’re still unsure, consider that more buyers may come into the market down the line, increasing competition. Partnering with the right real estate agent can make all the difference. An experienced REALTOR will not only help you navigate the current market but will also provide insights on when to act and how to get the best deal possible.
Final Thoughts
The Phoenix housing market is shifting. While the days of bidding wars and skyrocketing prices may be behind us (at least for now), opportunities still exist for both buyers and sellers. For sellers, it’s all about pricing right, presenting well, and standing out. For buyers, patience is key, but being prepared to move quickly when the right home comes along is equally important.
Navigating this changing landscape is challenging, but with the right strategy and a knowledgeable REALTOR by your side, you can make informed decisions and achieve your real estate goals.
Happy house hunting, Phoenix!