Each month I pull the latest Cromford Report numbers and give you my honest read on what they mean for Phoenix buyers and sellers. The data released September 4th covers August activity, and if last month's report showed strong closings but softening forward indicators, this month is the mirror image — forward-looking measures picked up while completed sales fell back. Underneath both, the same story keeps repeating: affordability is king, and it's the cost of money, not a lack of buyers, that's holding this market back.

By the Numbers — August 2026

What's Actually Happening

Pending listings, under-contract counts, and the contract ratio all moved back above where they stood a year ago — buyers are stirring earlier than usual. But that hasn't shown up in completed sales yet. Closed listings fell 13.0% from July, though part of that is a calendar effect: August had 21 working days against July's 22, so adjusted for that, closings per working day were down closer to 9%. Year-over-year the comparison is cleaner since both Augusts had 21 working days, and closings were still down 5.6%.

Pricing softened further across the board. Average price per square foot fell 1.9% for the month to $291.53, and the median sales price slipped 1.4% to $445,500 — its annual gain narrowing to 0.7% from 2.3% a month ago. That's the pattern I keep pointing to: pricing bounces up one month and down the next, which tells me the market genuinely hasn't decided which direction it's headed. What is consistent is the pressure pushing it downward — persistent inflation and the cost of money are doing more to shape pricing right now than supply or demand fundamentals.

One data note: the Sedona/Verde Valley board's migration into ARMLS during 2025 is still flattering the year-over-year active listings and closed sales figures slightly — by roughly half a point and closer to a full point, respectively. It's a small effect and shrinking each month, but worth knowing if you're comparing this report to the same month last year.

For Sellers

The listing success rate bounced back to 64.7% from July's low of 59.6%, so fewer sellers gave up last month — but it's still below last year's 65.4%, and closed-to-list held flat at 97.24%. That combination tells you the buyers who are transacting are disciplined, not desperate, and the cost of money is doing real work to shrink the pool willing to stretch for a home that needs work. If you're listing, get the repairs and fixes handled before you go active — a home showing well and priced for affordability is what's closing right now. One that needs a buyer to absorb both a fix-up list and today's financing costs is the one that sits.

For Buyers

Softer pricing works in your favor if you're ready to move — median price is down for the second straight month and the annual gain has narrowed considerably. The uptick in pending and under-contract activity suggests other buyers are starting to see the same opportunity, so it may not stay this soft for long. If you find a well-maintained home at a fair price, this is a reasonable window to negotiate from a position of strength rather than urgency.

Bottom Line

Affordability is still king. Pricing is moving in both directions month to month because the market hasn't made up its mind, and inflation combined with the cost of money is the structural force tilting it downward. Cromford expects prices to stay soft through September and into October, with the recent strength in pending and under-contract activity as the more encouraging signal — if it holds, closed sales should steady from November on as the luxury segment carries more of the mix. Whether you're buying, selling, or holding, know the real numbers before you make a move.