Every month I pull the latest Cromford Report numbers — the most reliable read we have on the Phoenix metro market — and give you a straight assessment of what they mean. The data released July 4th covers the first week of July, and the short version is this: the market is flat, and flat markets reward sellers who price for the buyer pool that actually exists, not the one they wish they had.

By the Numbers — Early July 2026

What's Actually Happening

Compared to July 2025, nearly every metric looks better — inventory is down, days inventory is down, closed listings are up. Compared to last month, the picture is more mixed, and that's normal seasonality: fewer listings, fewer closings, a slightly lower success rate as the market moves through the slowest stretch of the summer.

The median sales price didn't move at all month-over-month — $455,000 in June to $454,990 in July. Average price per square foot ticked up modestly. That combination tells you pricing is stable, not accelerating. There's no sign of a decline, but there's also no sign of the kind of appreciation that bails out an overpriced listing.

Supply is thinning, which normally favors sellers, but a chunk of that drop is seasonal — some luxury sellers pull their homes in the hottest months and relist in late September rather than compete for a smaller buyer pool. That's a choice, not a market failure, and it's worth keeping in mind if you're deciding whether to list now or wait.

For Sellers

This is the core message this month: the market is flat, and the buyer pool is smaller than normal for this time of year. That doesn't mean you can't sell — it means affordability is doing the work that used to happen on its own. If your home isn't priced to be affordable relative to what's actually competing against it, you will sit. Sellers right now aren't desperate — Days Inventory at 132.5 and a 97.27% closed-to-list ratio both say buyers who transact are paying close to asking. But "not desperate" cuts both ways. Buyers have options and they're using them. Price it right the first time.

For Buyers

If you find the right home at the right price, this is a workable market to buy in. Contract Ratio and Listing Success Rate are both up meaningfully year-over-year, and closed-to-list at 97.27% means sellers are engaging seriously with offers — not holding out for something unrealistic. You should also be able to get reasonable cooperation on financing terms in most transactions right now. Just don't expect sellers to be desperate. Come in with a realistic offer, not a lowball, if you want the home.

Bottom Line

Flat pricing, a smaller-than-normal buyer pool, and sellers who aren't under pressure to give homes away — that's July 2026 in three phrases. Whether you're buying, selling, or holding, the strategy that works in this market is the same one that's worked for 30 years: know the real numbers before you make a move.