Navigating the Phoenix Housing Market: November 2024

As we step into November 2024, the Phoenix real estate landscape shows a distinct shift, making it a favorable market for buyers. The latest statistics from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reveal intriguing trends when comparing current data with last year’s figures.

Surging Inventory Levels

As of November 1, 2024, active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS) have surged by 40% to 21,368 from 15,247 a year ago. Including UCB and CCBS, the numbers are up by 39% year-over-year, totaling 24,127 listings. This substantial increase in available properties gives buyers a variety of choices, enhancing their negotiating power.

Sales Dynamics

The market has seen a 6.8% increase in pending listings from last year, indicating a steady interest in buying despite the higher inventory. However, under-contract listings have seen a slight retreat, down 4.5% from last month. This mixed signal suggests that while buyer interest is there, the surge in listings is affecting the pace of contracts being signed.

Monthly sales also rose by 11.9% compared to last year, with 5,826 homes sold. This indicates a robust closure rate, albeit influenced by an additional working day in October 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. Such statistical nuances highlight the importance of considering working days in monthly comparisons.

Pricing Trends

Despite the higher sales numbers, pricing has experienced a slight dip. The monthly average sales price per square foot has decreased by 1.0% from last year, standing at $290.64. Conversely, the median sales price has seen a rise of 3.4%, reaching $450,000. These conflicting trends underscore a market that is yet to find a consistent pricing direction amidst fluctuating demand and supply.

The Shift to a Buyer's Market

For the first time in over a decade, the Cromford® Market Index (CMI) has dipped below 90, signifying a shift to a buyer's market, a status last seen briefly in late 2022. This is a crucial indicator for both buyers and sellers, as a buyer's market means more room for negotiation on prices and contract terms.

Looking Forward

With the contract ratio also showing a decline from 37 to 32, the market is cooling off. Sellers need to adjust their expectations and strategies in response to the growing leverage that buyers possess. The rising inventory and subtle shifts in pricing dynamics suggest that those looking to purchase homes may find advantageous deals, especially if the CMI remains below the critical 90 threshold.

As we navigate through these changes, both buyers and sellers must stay informed and flexible. The current conditions offer unique opportunities for buyers to negotiate favorable terms, while sellers might need to recalibrate their strategies to align with the evolving market dynamics.

Source: The Cromford Report