What the data says

The April 2026 Cromford Report paints a picture of a market that is holding — but not running. On the surface, the headline numbers look respectable: 7,719 closings in March, up 11% from a year ago, with listings under contract up 7.5% year-over-year and showings reaching their highest level in 12 months. The median sales price sits at $455,000, down just 1% from last year. Cromford's own analysts called it "holding up well."

But dig into the mid-month update and a different story starts to emerge. The average sales price per square foot fell a sharp 3.4% between March 15 and April 15 — from $318.45 to $307.72 — far beyond the modest 1.1% decline that was forecast. Cromford attributes the volatility largely to an ultra-luxury surge in early 2026 that pulled average figures higher, followed by a pause in those closings mid-month. The median held steady. The average swung wildly. That divergence matters.

Distress levels remain low by historical standards, but Cromford is noting a slow upward trend in pre-foreclosure activity — currently 2.0% of pending listings. Worth watching.

My take: this is a buyers market

The headline numbers flatter the market more than it deserves. Strip out the high-end closings that have skewed the averages upward, and what you have is a market that is quietly deteriorating in terms of price. I'll say it plainly: we are in a buyers market.

Demand is muted. Mortgage rates stubbornly hovering near 6.45%, combined with persistent inflation, have made buyers cautious. This isn't a lack of desire to buy — it's a confidence problem. Affordability is stretched, and economic uncertainty is doing what it always does: it makes people pause at exactly the moment they'd otherwise act.

The key dynamic right now: Sellers can address affordability — through price reductions, rate buydowns, or concessions. They cannot address uncertainty. That distinction matters enormously when pricing a home today.

Sellers are still coming to market, and some are pricing as if it's 2022. It isn't. Inventory is rising. Homes that are updated, well-presented, and priced correctly are still selling — often with multiple offers. Homes that are not are sitting, collecting days on market, and eventually receiving lower offers than they would have gotten with disciplined pricing on day one. The market is grading on a curve right now, and the curve is steep.

The low end of the condo market deserves a special mention. High HOA fees and escalating reserve requirements are actively deterring buyers. Many of these units are genuinely more attractive to rent than to own at current prices. If you own one of these properties, understand that your buyer pool is narrow and your competition is rental income.

For buyers, this environment — while frustrating — represents the best negotiating position in several years. Rate buydowns, seller concessions, and genuine price flexibility are on the table in ways they simply were not 18 to 24 months ago.

Bottom line

Price appreciation has gone sideways. The luxury market is masking softness in the broader market. Inventory is building. Affordability and uncertainty are the twin forces suppressing demand — and sellers can only control one of them. If you're thinking about buying or selling in the Phoenix metro, now is the time to have a frank conversation about strategy, not just price.

I'm Jonathan Baer. I've closed over 1,299 transactions and $309 million in volume across Phoenix, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Carefree, Anthem, and the North Phoenix/TSMC corridor. I've seen this market in many conditions. This one requires eyes wide open — on both sides of the transaction.

Market data sourced from the Cromford Report, utilizing ARMLS and Maricopa County Recorder data (April 2026). Statistics reflect all areas and types within the ARMLS database. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. Jonathan Baer is licensed as a real estate broker in the State of Arizona (BR571739000) and as a mortgage loan originator (NMLS 1904177) through Foothills Mortgage Group LLC.