As we move toward year-end, the Greater Phoenix housing market is looking healthier than many expected three months ago. After a disappointing spring and summer, the latest ARMLS/Cromford reporting suggests the market has returned to a more balanced posture: supply has pulled back while demand has improved.

Inventory Pulled Back — Good News for Remaining Sellers

We saw a sharp turnaround in supply between October and November thanks to more listing expirations and more cancellations than this time last year. Overall supply is down about 5% in a single month, which is good news for sellers still in the market. Buyers still have more choice than last year, but the market has moved closer to balanced—which typically supports stable pricing.

Demand Is Improving

Mortgage rates are lower than last month, and we can report stronger contract activity. Under contract listings are up 12% year-over-year. At first glance, sales look low compared with last month, but month-to-month comparisons can be distorted by the number of working days. The fairer comparison is November 2024, where closings improved by nearly 5%. Demand is on an upward trend right now, which is welcome news after a disappointing spring and summer.

Pricing Remains Resilient

Pricing remains resilient with no signs left of the weakness we saw during the summer. Average price per square foot is up 1.6% over the last 12 months. That’s not as high as inflation, which means prices are down in “real” terms. Combined with lower interest rates and continued wage growth throughout 2025, affordability is improved compared with December 2024.

My Outlook for Early 2026

With inventory decreasing due to expirations, the market has returned to a more balanced posture. That’s why I expect pricing to remain stable for the remainder of the year. Looking into 2026, we’ve had a December rate cut, and we typically see a seasonal increase in listings in January and February. Spring should be better than last year—but don’t expect it to go gangbusters.

• Buyers remain wary, hoping for a bigger adjustment in rates and/or pricing because affordability is king.
• Sellers remain resolute on pricing, especially for well-presented, move-in ready homes.
• I expect Spring 2026 to be marginally better in sales than Spring 2025, with stable pricing overall.

What Buyers Should Do Now

Buyers should get prequalified and be prepared to shop efficiently. In a stable-price environment, the “wins” usually come from: finding the right home, negotiating smartly, and moving quickly when the one shows up.

What Sellers Should Do Now

Sellers should focus on preparation. Homes that are clean, updated where it counts, and truly move-in ready are the ones that earn top dollar and reduce days on market—especially when buyers are payment-sensitive.

Source: Cromford market commentary and ARMLS figures reported for December 1, 2025 compared to December 1, 2024.