🏠 Phoenix Housing Market Update – November 2025
By Jonathan Baer, Dominion Group Properties
Okay, let’s talk Phoenix. Because if you’ve glanced at the housing market lately, you’ve probably asked yourself: “What exactly are we doing here?” Fair question. November 2025 has Phoenix balancing on that thin line between confidence and caution — and honestly, it’s refreshing.
After years of chaos, bidding wars, and mortgage rates behaving like caffeinated squirrels, the Phoenix housing market is finally settling into something that resembles sanity. Not cold. Not hot. Just an honest-to-goodness balanced market — the kind we haven’t seen in a decade.
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What the November Numbers Really Say
According to the latest ARMLS and Cromford Report data, active listings in Phoenix have climbed roughly 21% year-over-year — landing around 26,000 homes valley-wide. Monthly sales ticked up just over 5%, and the median price is holding steady near $450,000. Translation? Stability isn’t a rumor — it’s here.
Inventory growth is finally easing. September jumped 5%, October saw 6%, and now we’re hovering around four and a half months of supply — textbook balance. Buyers aren’t panicking. Sellers aren’t delusional. And everyone’s slowly relearning the art of negotiation.
Sellers: The Smart Ones Are Winning
Want to know who’s closing at 98% of list price? The sellers who price correctly from day one. The ones offering rate buydowns. The ones who treat presentation like it matters (because it does). The homes that need “a little love” — new kitchen, paint, and maybe therapy — are sitting longer. No surprises there.
Buyers: Your Window Is Open
For the first time in years, buyers have breathing room. They’re comparing, verifying, negotiating — not sprinting to beat 12 other offers. Rates have calmed down, confidence is creeping back, and due diligence is having its comeback moment. Shocking, I know.
My Take: This Is the Pivot Point
November feels like the market hitting equilibrium — that sweet spot where neither side is holding all the power. Not a buyer’s market. Not a seller’s market. A realistic market. The kind where strategy beats luck every single time.
And yes, the three Ps still rule 2025: Presentation, Pricing, Patience. As I like to say: “Prior, Proper, Planning, Prevents, Piss, Poor, Performance.” Still undefeated.
Looking Ahead
If rates stay steady (or drop a hair), spring could wake things up. For now, expect a stable, slower rhythm. Balanced markets reward the prepared — not the impulsive.
Truth bomb: Stability isn’t boring. It’s sustainable. And Phoenix could use a little sustainability.
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Respect all, fear none.
– Jonathan