March 2026 Navigating the Phoenix Housing Market BlogNavigating the Phoenix Housing Market – March 2026

By Jonathan Baer, Dominion Group Properties

The Difference Between Sold and Sitting

Let me start with a simple truth…

Right now in the Phoenix housing market, the difference between a home that sells and one that sits there collecting dust is razor thin.

And I mean thin.

Buyers are out there. Homes are still selling. But interest rates are still reminding everyone that money actually costs money again. And when that happens? Buyers get picky. Really picky.

You following me?

This month’s theme is simple: if you’re selling, you need to be priced right on the nose. Not close. Not hopeful. Not “let’s see what happens.”

Right. On. The. Nose.

What the Numbers Are Saying

According to the latest Cromford Report and ARMLS data, here’s where the Phoenix metro market stands as of March 1, 2026 compared to March 1, 2025:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 25,502 — up 6.6% year over year and up 3.7% from last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB & CCBS): 29,341 — up 7.2% year over year and up 5.1% from last month
  • Pending Listings: 4,881 — down 2.9% year over year but up 15% from last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 8,720 — up 2.9% year over year and up 15% from last month
  • Monthly Sales: 5,870 — up 1.0% year over year and up 21% from last month
  • Average Sales Price Per Square Foot: $314.43 — up 0.9% year over year
  • Median Sales Price: $450,000 — down 2.0% from last year but up 0.7% from last month

Now, if you’ve been around real estate for more than five minutes, those numbers tell a pretty clear story.

Inventory kept growing during February, but not with the same enthusiasm we saw in January. That tells me we’re either at the top for active listings, or close enough to smell it.

Pending listings look a little soft, but the total number of homes under contract is still up 2.9% from this time last year. That also tells us more agents are using UCB and CCBS instead of just marking things pending. Translation? The market’s moving… just not exactly with fireworks.

Something Else Is Still Holding Buyers Back

Here’s the odd part. Mortgage rates in 2026 are more tempting than they were in 2025, yet we’re not seeing some huge wave of buyer enthusiasm.

Why?

Because buyers are still dealing with economic uncertainty, higher monthly payments than they’d like, and a general sense that nobody wants to make an expensive mistake. Fair enough.

So yes, lower rates have brought a few more buyers into the market. But they’ve also brought out a few more sellers. Which means the balance between supply and demand hasn’t dramatically shifted.

That’s why pricing matters so much right now.

Not theoretically. Practically.

Buyers are cautious. They comparison shop. They hesitate. They negotiate harder. And if your house is overpriced, they don’t send flowers or apology notes. They just move on to the next listing.

No drama. No negotiation. Just… next.

Phoenix Is Not One Market

This is where people get themselves into trouble. They hear one headline about “the Phoenix market” and assume it applies everywhere from Central Phoenix to the far edges of the Valley.

It doesn’t.

The average price per square foot is still being supported by strong sales in the high-end market. Luxury properties and homes in stronger close-in locations are holding up better. But the median sales price being down 2% tells us the lower-end and mid-range markets are softer.

And the outer areas? In many of those neighborhoods, supply now comfortably exceeds demand.

That’s where sellers need to stop fantasizing and start positioning.

If you’re farther from Central Phoenix or Scottsdale, or you’re in a price range where buyers are especially payment-sensitive, you need to be even more disciplined. Perception is reality and reality is perception.

The New Reality for Sellers

I’ve been doing this since 1993. I’ve seen hot markets, cold markets, weird markets, and markets that looked like they were assembled by sleep-deprived interns.

This one, honestly, makes sense.

Homes that are well priced and well positioned are still selling.

Homes priced based on wishful thinking, last spring’s numbers, or a neighbor’s delusion? Those sit.

Then come the price reductions. Then the stale-market smell. Then buyers start circling like they just found weakness in the herd.

And trust me — that’s not where you want to be.

Jonathan’s Truth Bomb

Here it is: in today’s Phoenix housing market, the margin between selling and not selling is tight.

So if you’re a seller, you need to be priced right on the nose from day one.

Not almost right. Not “let’s leave room to negotiate.” Not “let’s try high and see what happens.” I can’t stand wasting time.

The right price gets attention. Attention gets showings. Showings get offers.

The wrong price gets silence.

So what answer would you like — a lie or the truth?

Homes are still selling. But positioning and pricing remain everything.

That’s the truth.

If you want an honest read on where your home fits in this market, learn more about Jonathan Baer’s approach as a real estate wealth advisor.

You can also see the latest Maricopa County housing market trends or browse the latest homes for sale in Phoenix and beyond.

Want to chat about your home’s value? Schedule a quick call at https://jb2.youcanbook.me.

Knowledge, Love, and Patience. That’s why I’m here.

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