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Navigating The Phoenix Housing Market

Welcome to the official blog of Dominion Group Properties—your trusted resource for real estate news, market analysis, and expert guidance across Phoenix, Scottsdale, North Phoenix, Cave Creek, Carefree, and Anthem. Whether you're a home buyer, seller, investor, or planning a relocation within the Valley, our blog delivers timely content to keep you informed.

What We Cover

  • Local Market Trends & Housing Reports: Stay updated with monthly insights on inventory, pricing, and market shifts in Phoenix and the North Valley.
  • Home Buying & Selling Strategies: From financing manufactured homes to pricing historic properties, our articles cover every step of the process.
  • Community & Development News: Learn about upcoming neighborhoods like Desert Hills, emerging job centers, and how primed areas are shaping investment opportunities.
  • Property Management & Landlord Tips: Make informed decisions whether you're leasing, investing, or managing a residential property in Arizona.

Why Our Blog Stands Out

  • Content anchored in real-world market data and local expertise across Phoenix Metro and surrounding regions.
  • Written and curated by Jonathan Baer—broker, licensed loan officer, and real estate advisor with over 30 years’ experience and $240 million in closed transactions in Maricopa County.
  • Blog topics tailored for actionable insights, whether flipping a home in Cave Creek, planning a move to Anthem, or financing a manufactured home in Phoenix.

Bookmark this page and check back regularly for fresh updates, expert commentary, and smart strategies for navigating Arizona’s dynamic real estate market.

About the Author:
Jonathan Baer, Designated Broker and Real Estate Wealth Advisor at Dominion Group Properties, has completed over 1,000 transactions worth more than $240 million across Arizona.

 

Learn More About Jonathan Baer

Nov. 14, 2025

Should You Buy That New Builder Home with a 3.99% Mortgage Rate?

 

Should You Buy That New Builder Home with a 3.99% Mortgage Rate?

By Jonathan Baer, Dominion Group Properties

You’ve seen the ads. You’ve heard the pitch. And somewhere between the glossy mailers and the over‑caffeinated sales rep, you start thinking a 3.99% mortgage rate on a brand‑new home sounds like the deal of the century. I get it. In a world where 6–7% is the norm, 3.99% feels like winning a small lottery jackpot.

But like most “too good to be true” offers in real estate, the devil isn’t in the details — it is the details.

Arizona new construction mortgage incentives explained

The Illusion of Affordability

Here’s how the magic trick works: instead of reducing the price of the home, the builder bakes the cost of the rate buydown into the sticker price. That $400,000 home that’s been sitting a little too long? Rather than lowering the price to $360,000, they keep it firm — and spend maybe $18,000–$22,000 to drop your rate to 3.99%.

You walk away thinking you outsmarted the market. Meanwhile, the builder quietly high‑fived their finance department for keeping the sale price inflated.

A Quick Example (Because Numbers Don’t Lie)

Scenario A: Builder Deal
Price: $400,000
Rate: 3.99% (builder-funded)
Buyer thinks: “Great deal!”

Scenario B: Market Reality
True Market Value: ~$360,000
Rate: 6.25% (market rate)
Buyer thinks: “Higher payment.”

But if you sell in 3 years?
The real world doesn’t care about your incentivized rate — it cares about resale value. And you’ll be the one holding the bag when your “$400,000” home competes with builders still offering low-rate incentives on new inventory.

Two Markets, Two Realities

The buy‑down game creates two parallel universes:

  • Builder Market: Inflated prices supported by tempting mortgage incentives.
  • Resale Market: Sellers competing without gimmicks — and usually lowering prices to match.

If you buy new today and need to sell in a few years, you’re up against fresh inventory, aggressive builder incentives, and buyers who know exactly what those incentives are worth. Spoiler: it won’t help your resale value.

Arizona’s Equity “Soft Spots”

Certain cities have so much land and future building capacity that homeowners face long-term competitive pressure. These include:

  • Buckeye
  • Surprise
  • Maricopa
  • Queen Creek
  • Florence

Translation: if you think your resale will compete with a brand‑new home and a discounted rate... it won’t.

The Long Game (and the Fine Print)

If you’re absolutely positive you’re never moving — like you’ve already picked your future rocking‑chair spot — then maybe the incentive pencils out. But if there’s even a slight chance you’ll sell in the next 3–7 years, you need to understand the equity risk you’re signing up for.

Jonathan’s Truth Bomb

A low rate can make a bad deal look good. Don’t confuse a comfortable monthly payment with a smart long-term investment. Builders know exactly how to package affordability — and they’re not doing it out of charity.

Schedule a quick call and I’ll walk you through the real math, not the marketing math.

Learn more about how I help clients build real estate wealth.
See the latest homes across Phoenix.

Posted in Home Buying, Market Updates, Real Estate Finance
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Nov. 14, 2025

The Dirty Truth About Septic System Inspections in Arizona

 

Septic Inspection in Cave Creek Arizona

 

The Dirty Truth About Septic System Inspections in Arizona

By Jonathan Baer, Dominion Group Properties

Dominion Group Properties logo for Arizona real estate blog on septic inspections

Let’s talk about everyone’s favorite topic: septic systems. Glamorous, right? Yeah… not so much. But if you’re selling or buying in Phoenix and across Maricopa County—Cave Creek, Carefree, Desert Hills, New River, even Prescott and the high country—you need to know how septic inspections actually affect your deal.

The 6-Month Rule (and why sellers wait)

In Arizona, a septic inspection is typically valid for six months. That’s why most sellers order the inspection after they’re under contract—not months in advance. If you jump early and the clock runs out, you’re paying for it twice. And I can’t stand wasting time—or money.

The concrete problem (literally)

Here’s the headache lately: a lot of 20–30-year-old concrete tanks are starting to crack and spall (translation: the concrete’s flaking and failing). Inspectors are marking reports as “Functional with Concerns.” Does it work today? Sure. Does that open the door for a buyer to renegotiate tomorrow? Also yes.

That little checkbox can become a $10,000–$15,000 conversation depending on tank size and how stubborn the dirt is on your lot. Replace a tank in caliche or rock and—boom—there goes the vacation fund.

Roots, fields, and other “surprises”

Tree roots love septic tanks and leach fields like kids love splash pads. Once they’re in, you might be looking at jetting, repairs, or even field replacement. Add Arizona’s rocky soils to the mix and costs can climb. “It’s just a little root,” said no invoice ever.

Smart move: pre-inspect (sometimes)

If your system’s older or you’ve got big trees nearby, it can be prudent to inspect before you list. Why? So you know what you’re walking into—before a buyer uses “Functional with Concerns” to reopen the deal and drag you through an expensive renegotiation. Prior, Proper, Planning, Prevents, Piss, Poor, Performance. You following me?

For buyers: protect yourself without blowing the deal

  • Make sure the inspection is within the 6-month window.
  • If you see “Functional with Concerns,” ask for bids and timelines—not just guesses.
  • Check for age, material (concrete), visible cracking/spalling, and nearby trees.
  • Budget realistically: tanks and fields can run $10k–$15k+ with tricky soils.

Bottom line (Jonathan’s truth bomb)

Septic systems aren’t sexy, but they’re serious. Sellers: know your system before the buyer does. Buyers: verify, price it in, and don’t ignore warning labels disguised as “concerns.” Perception is reality and reality is perception.

Want a straight-talk game plan? Schedule a quick call and we’ll map your next steps—no fluff, just facts.

Meet Jonathan Baer, Designated Broker of Dominion Group Properties.
Start your home search here.
See the latest Maricopa County market trends.

Posted in Home Selling, Market Updates
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Nov. 10, 2025

Phoenix Housing Market Update – November 2025: A Balancing Act as Buyers and Sellers Deal with Uncertainty

 

 

🏠 Phoenix Housing Market Update – November 2025

By Jonathan Baer, Dominion Group Properties

Okay, let’s talk Phoenix. Because if you’ve glanced at the housing market lately, you’ve probably asked yourself: “What exactly are we doing here?” Fair question. November 2025 has Phoenix balancing on that thin line between confidence and caution — and honestly, it’s refreshing.

After years of chaos, bidding wars, and mortgage rates behaving like caffeinated squirrels, the Phoenix housing market is finally settling into something that resembles sanity. Not cold. Not hot. Just an honest-to-goodness balanced market — the kind we haven’t seen in a decade.

Phoenix skyline housing market November 2025

Search Phoenix Homes   Meet Jonathan

What the November Numbers Really Say

According to the latest ARMLS and Cromford Report data, active listings in Phoenix have climbed roughly 21% year-over-year — landing around 26,000 homes valley-wide. Monthly sales ticked up just over 5%, and the median price is holding steady near $450,000. Translation? Stability isn’t a rumor — it’s here.

Inventory growth is finally easing. September jumped 5%, October saw 6%, and now we’re hovering around four and a half months of supply — textbook balance. Buyers aren’t panicking. Sellers aren’t delusional. And everyone’s slowly relearning the art of negotiation.

Sellers: The Smart Ones Are Winning

Want to know who’s closing at 98% of list price? The sellers who price correctly from day one. The ones offering rate buydowns. The ones who treat presentation like it matters (because it does). The homes that need “a little love” — new kitchen, paint, and maybe therapy — are sitting longer. No surprises there.

Buyers: Your Window Is Open

For the first time in years, buyers have breathing room. They’re comparing, verifying, negotiating — not sprinting to beat 12 other offers. Rates have calmed down, confidence is creeping back, and due diligence is having its comeback moment. Shocking, I know.

My Take: This Is the Pivot Point

November feels like the market hitting equilibrium — that sweet spot where neither side is holding all the power. Not a buyer’s market. Not a seller’s market. A realistic market. The kind where strategy beats luck every single time.

And yes, the three Ps still rule 2025: Presentation, Pricing, Patience. As I like to say: “Prior, Proper, Planning, Prevents, Piss, Poor, Performance.” Still undefeated.

Looking Ahead

If rates stay steady (or drop a hair), spring could wake things up. For now, expect a stable, slower rhythm. Balanced markets reward the prepared — not the impulsive.

Truth bomb: Stability isn’t boring. It’s sustainable. And Phoenix could use a little sustainability.

Click here to see your neighborhood’s exact numbers.

Respect all, fear none.

– Jonathan

Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Market Updates, Property Management
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Nov. 6, 2025

Declining Market Phoenix Real Estate

 

Declining Market Phoenix Real Estate

 

What a Declining Market Really Means for Phoenix Homeowners and Buyers

By Jonathan Baer | Dominion Group Properties

Every real estate cycle tells a story. Sometimes it’s a story of explosive growth and multiple offers, and other times it’s a story of hesitation, longer days on market, and price adjustments. In today’s Phoenix housing market, we’re starting to see the early signs of what’s known as a “declining market.” But what exactly does that mean—and why should it matter to you as a homeowner, buyer, or investor?

Defining a Declining Market

In the simplest terms, a declining market is when home prices in a specific area begin to trend downward. This can be gradual—starting with increased inventory and slower buyer activity—or more dramatic, often driven by rising interest rates, economic uncertainty, or affordability pressures.

In real estate appraisals, this term carries real weight. When an appraiser marks “Declining Market” on an appraisal report, it doesn’t just describe the trend—it changes how the value is interpreted. Appraisers are required to make market-based adjustments to ensure that values reflect current (not past) conditions. Even if comparable sales—known as “comps”—support a certain price, the appraiser may reduce the appraised value based on the overall market trajectory.

My Experience During the Last Declining Market: 2008

I’ll never forget what it felt like during the 2008 financial crisis. At the time, I was working through deals that seemed solid—buyers and sellers had agreed on prices, appraisers had solid comps, and everyone was ready to close. But then the market started shifting fast.

Suddenly, appraisers began checking the “declining market” box on their reports. That one small mark had a massive impact. Even though the comps supported the contract price, the appraisal values came in lower—sometimes by thousands of dollars. The appraisers weren’t wrong; they were reacting to the downward pressure in pricing that was spreading across the Phoenix metro area.

This often led to last-minute chaos. A deal that was ready to close on Friday could suddenly be in jeopardy on Wednesday. We’d find ourselves renegotiating terms just days before escrow closed—buyers scrambling to bring in more cash, and sellers forced to reduce their price just to keep the deal alive.

For many, it was a stressful, emotional experience. But it also taught a powerful lesson about what happens when the market turns—and how quickly confidence can evaporate once the term “declining market” starts appearing in reports and listings.

The Impact on Sellers and Buyers

For Sellers:

In a declining market, pricing is everything. When prices begin to slip, the worst thing a seller can do is hold out for “just a little more.” I’ve seen it time and again—homes that start out overpriced sit longer, gather dust on the MLS, and end up chasing the market down. By the time the seller makes a significant reduction, buyers have already moved on, and the final sale price ends up lower than if it had been priced correctly from the start.

I call it the “toilet bowl effect”—the longer you swirl around the market without selling, the faster you go down in value. When buyers see repeated price drops, they assume something’s wrong with the property—or they wait for the next reduction. Momentum matters, and once you lose it, it’s hard to regain.

For Buyers:

In a declining market, buyers can feel like they’re gaining power—and to some extent, they are. But this isn’t the time to get careless. A lower price today doesn’t mean your home will hold value tomorrow. If the appraiser marks “declining market,” your loan could be affected, requiring a larger down payment or changing your loan-to-value ratio.

Are We on the Cusp of Another Declining Market in Phoenix?

While today’s Phoenix real estate market isn’t collapsing like it did in 2008, we are beginning to see inventory rise and buyer demand slow—especially in Cave Creek, Desert Hills, and North Scottsdale. When you combine that with higher mortgage rates and increased seller competition, you have the early ingredients of a softening market.

Data from ARMLS and The Cromford Report both show subtle shifts: longer days on market, more price reductions, and a flattening of appreciation. These are early warning signs of a market transition.

How to Protect Your Home Value in a Declining Market

  • Price with precision: Don’t list at yesterday’s comps—list at today’s reality.
  • Stay informed: Follow Maricopa County market reports.
  • Be flexible: If your home isn’t getting activity, adjust early.
  • Work with experience: An agent who’s been through a declining market (like I have) can help you avoid major pitfalls.

Final Takeaway

A declining market doesn’t mean the sky is falling—it means the market is correcting. If you’re selling, don’t be greedy. Price right, stay informed, and aim to sell within the first 30 days. If you’re buying, be smart and prepared for appraisal fluctuations.

Ready to Make Your Move?

Looking to buy or sell in Phoenix, Cave Creek, or Scottsdale? Let’s talk strategy before the market shifts further. Together, we’ll make sure your next move is a smart one.

Contact Jonathan Baer at Dominion Group Properties today.

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Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Market Updates, Property Management, Real Estate Finance
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Nov. 3, 2025

Selling a Home with Solar Panels

 

 

how-to-sell-a-solar-home-in-phoenix-arizona

 

Selling a Home with Solar Panels in Phoenix, Arizona (Home Seller Marketing Guide)

Quick Takeaways

  • Yes, you can sell a home with solar—and well-prepared listings often earn stronger buyer confidence and better offers.
  • Organization drives value: the more clearly you document savings and system health, the easier it is for buyers (and appraisers) to assign value.
  • Solar isn’t “free,” but it can be a smart hedge against future energy costs—especially meaningful in an inflationary environment.

Seller Prep Checklist (What to Do Before You List)

  1. Gather all paperwork. Installation contract, scope of work, permits/final, warranty documents (modules, inverter, roof-penetration workmanship), monitoring access, interconnection approval, and any UCC-1 filings.
  2. Confirm payoff if there’s a lien/lease. Request a current payoff or assumption package from the finance/lease company. Knowing hard numbers early reduces friction later.
  3. Pull 12 months of utility bills. Buyers and appraisers want to see real usage/cost data. A simple “before vs after solar” summary can be very persuasive.
  4. Plan the transfer on Day 1 of escrow. Start immediately if there’s a lien/lease. Some successor companies (after installer bankruptcies) can be slow and add fees. Early action keeps your closing on track.
  5. Consider a performance check. A licensed tech can test output, verify inverters/optimizers, and confirm monitoring. A clean bill of health reassures buyers and their lender.

Pro tip: Tie your pricing and marketing narrative to local demand. See the latest trends on the Maricopa County Market Report.

How Buyers (and Appraisers) Evaluate Solar Value

Solar value is primarily financial and risk-based:

  • Financial: documented utility savings, system age, inverter status, and remaining warranty terms.
  • Risk: clarity of ownership vs. lease, ease of transfer, and roof condition under modules.

When you show a year of bills, a simple ROI narrative, and a smooth transfer path, buyers can quantify value—often reducing negotiation noise.

Marketing the Solar Story (What We Highlight)

  • Production + bills: anonymized screenshots of monitoring (kWh) and a 12-month utility chart.
  • Ownership status: owned (no lien) vs. financed vs. lease—explained plainly in the listing copy.
  • Maintenance status: recent inspection/cleaning, inverter replacement, or optimizer swap noted.
  • Transfer clarity: step-by-step process and expected timelines to set buyer expectations.

Timeline: What Happens Once You’re in Escrow

  1. Initiate transfer immediately (finance/lease or UCC release for owned systems, if applicable).
  2. Buyer application/credit review if assuming a lease/loan; provide all requested docs fast.
  3. Utility interconnection update (name/account change per provider instructions).
  4. Final confirmation & closing (ensure all releases/consents are documented before COE).

Note: Successor companies for bankrupt installers can add time/fees—another reason to start early.

Roof & System Health: Reduce Buyer Risk

  • Verify roof age and any roof-penetration workmanship warranty.
  • Confirm inverter age (string vs. microinverter) and any remaining manufacturer coverage.
  • Provide recent service records and cleaning details; consider a third-party performance check.

FAQ: Selling a Home with Solar Panels (Arizona)

1) Can I sell a house in Phoenix if my solar is leased or financed?

Yes. Buyers typically either assume the lease/loan (subject to approval) or you pay it off at closing. Knowing the numbers upfront avoids delays.

2) What documents do buyers and appraisers want to see?

Contract, permits/final, interconnection approval, warranties, UCC filings (if any), monitoring access, and 12 months of utility bills.

3) How do I prove the value of my solar?

Show real savings with a year of bills, monitoring screenshots, and a simple ROI narrative. A recent inspection/test helps support performance claims.

4) When should I start a lease/loan transfer?

Immediately after escrow opens. Transfers and credit checks can take time—especially with successor companies after installer bankruptcies.

5) What is a UCC-1 filing and why does it matter?

Many financed systems have a UCC-1 securing the equipment. You’ll need a release at payoff so the buyer receives clear title.

6) Will buyers pay more for solar?

Buyers pay for documented savings and low risk. Clear paperwork, strong performance, and simple transfer steps make higher offers more likely.

7) How do lenders treat solar for appraisals?

Policies vary by lender/loan type. Owned systems (no lien) are the simplest. Leased/financed systems typically require transfer agreements and can affect valuation.

8) Who handles the utility side (APS/SRP)?

We’ll guide you on the provider’s account/interconnection update. Each utility has its own steps and timing; plan this alongside the lease/loan transfer.

9) Do I need to clean or service panels before listing?

It helps. A clean array and recent check/maintenance report support your performance story and reduce buyer concerns.

10) Can a failing inverter or older system still sell?

Yes—just price/position appropriately, disclose issues, and consider repair/credit strategies to keep the deal moving.

11) How long does a transfer usually take?

Plan for a few weeks. Some transfers finish quickly; others—especially with older/successor companies—take longer. Starting on Day 1 is critical.

12) What if the original installer went out of business?

A successor company may manage the contract. Expect different forms and occasional fees. We’ll navigate that process early to avoid surprises.

Pricing Strategy & Market Positioning

We align price with current absorption, competing inventory, and buyer demand. Then we frame your solar as a long-term hedge against rising energy costs—a message that resonates with financially minded buyers.

See current trends on the Maricopa County Market Report.

Bottom Line

You can absolutely sell a solar home—and sell it well—if you’re prepared. Organize documents, confirm payoff figures, present one year of bills to demonstrate savings, initiate transfers immediately in escrow, and consider a performance test. That combination builds trust, shortens timelines, and protects your price.

Thinking about selling? Let’s build a clean, confident solar story for buyers—and capture top value in today’s Phoenix market.

Posted in Home Selling, Press Releases, Property Management
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Nov. 2, 2025

New River Arizona FAQ

 

 

Welcome to New River Image

 

New River Arizona FAQ

By Jonathan Baer, Designated Broker & Real Estate Wealth Advisor — Dominion Group Properties

1) What is New River, Arizona?

New River is a rural, unincorporated community in far north Maricopa County, just north of Desert Hills and south of Black Canyon City along I-17. The community traces its roots to a 19th-century stagecoach stop, and its name comes from the seasonal wash that runs through the area. Expect large lots, equestrian properties, mountain views, and a quieter desert lifestyle—while still being within a short drive of Anthem and North Phoenix for daily needs.†

2) How long is the drive to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport?

Plan on roughly 40–50 minutes via I-17 in typical conditions (about 40+ miles depending on your New River address). Pro tip: early mornings and late evenings are the most predictable; weekday rush hours add time. (Time estimate inferred from New River’s location ~36 miles north of downtown Phoenix.)†

3) Where are the nearest grocery stores?

Most New River residents shop in nearby Anthem—10–15 minutes south—where you’ll find:

  • Walmart Supercenter — 4435 W Anthem Way, Anthem, AZ 85086.
  • Fry’s Marketplace — 39508 N Daisy Mountain Dr, Phoenix (Anthem), AZ 85086.
  • Safeway — 3655 W Anthem Way, Phoenix (Anthem), AZ 85086.

These centers cluster around Anthem Way & Daisy Mountain Drive with additional services like pharmacies, fuel, banking, salons, and casual dining.

4) How far is the TSMC Plant from New River?

TSMC Arizona is in north Phoenix near I-17 & Dove Valley Rd (just north of Loop 303). From central New River, it’s roughly ~20–25 miles and about 25–30 minutes in typical traffic—making New River a convenient home base for employees, contractors, and suppliers.

5) Is there a nearby public library?

Yes—the North Valley Regional Library in Anthem, located at 40410 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy within the Anthem Civic Building. It’s a joint-use facility with Boulder Creek High School and offers study rooms, programs, and digital resources.

6) What schools serve New River?

New River is served by the Deer Valley Unified School District and local charter options:

  • New River Elementary School — 48827 N Black Canyon Fwy, New River, AZ 85087
  • Boulder Creek High School — 40404 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy, Anthem, AZ 85086
  • Anthem Preparatory Academy (K–12 charter) — 39808 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy, Anthem, AZ 85086

7) What’s the lifestyle like?

Think wide-open Sonoran Desert, starry nights, and elbow room. Many properties are one acre or more, with space for horses, RVs, workshops, and toys. You’ll find custom homes, ranch properties, and modern builds—plus trail access and views of Gavilan Peak and Daisy Mountain. Anthem, Cave Creek, and Norterra keep you connected to shopping, dining, and services when you want them.

8) Explore nearby community guides

Find a Home in New River

Questions about wells, septic, acreage, or horse setups? That’s our wheelhouse. Contact Jonathan Baer for a no-pressure consult, or browse current listings across North Phoenix communities at DGPaz.com.

© Dominion Group Properties. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Drive times are estimates and vary with traffic.

Posted in FAQ for Area Cities
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Oct. 28, 2025

Cave Creek FAQ

Welcome to Cave Creek Arizona

Cave Creek, Arizona – FAQ

A quick local guide to history, lifestyle, and essentials — with places to eat, grab a drink, shop, bank, buy groceries, and more.

Top Questions About Cave Creek

When was Cave Creek founded and when was it incorporated?

Cave Creek’s roots date to the 1870s mining and ranching era. The Town later incorporated in 1986.

What gives Cave Creek its Old West character?

The Town Core preserves a classic Western main street with saloons, live music, rustic shops, galleries, and frequent events — all amid Sonoran Desert scenery.

Where can I explore local history?

Start with the Town’s history resources and the Cave Creek Museum, then take the Local Landmarks self-guided walking tour of historic buildings in the Town Core.

How far is Cave Creek from Scottsdale and Downtown Phoenix?

Plan roughly ~20 minutes to North Scottsdale and ~35–40 minutes to Downtown Phoenix, depending on traffic.

Is Cave Creek good for outdoor recreation?

Absolutely — trail access, mountain views, and nearby preserves make Cave Creek a hub for hiking, biking, and horseback riding.

Schools (Cave Creek Unified & Nearby)

  • Cactus Shadows High School (9–12) — College & CTE pathways.
  • Sonoran Trails Middle School (6–8)
  • Desert Sun Academy (K–6)
  • Horseshoe Trails Elementary (K–6)
  • Black Mountain Elementary (K–6)
  • Lone Mountain Elementary (K–6)

Boundaries can change. Always verify attendance zones with CCUSD or the specific school before buying.

Library & Learning

Utilities & Services

Tip: Verify provider availability by address—some outlying areas use wells, septic systems, and alternate ISPs.

Restaurants Local Picks

Tip: Reservations recommended during peak season/weekends.

Bars & Live Music

Shopping & Western District

Have a Place to Add?

Send your favorite local spot and we’ll keep this guide fresh for residents and visitors.

Distances & Commute

  • Downtown Phoenix: ~30 miles (≈40–45 minutes, traffic dependent)
  • Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX): ~33 miles (≈40–50 minutes)
  • Scottsdale Airport (SDL): ~15 miles (≈20–25 minutes)
  • North Scottsdale (Kierland/Scottsdale Quarter): ~14–17 miles (≈25–30 minutes)

Times are typical from the Town Core; your commute may vary with exact address and season.

Posted in FAQ for Area Cities, Market Updates
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Oct. 6, 2025

Phoenix Housing Market Update – October 2025: A Reset Month with Buyers in Control

🏡 Phoenix Housing Market Update – October 2025: A Reset Month with Buyers in Control

By Jonathan Baer, Dominion Group Properties
Last updated October 6, 2025

A Quick Snapshot

The latest Cromford Report shows that the Phoenix housing market hit the reset button in September. Here are the key numbers as of October 1, 2025, compared to this time last year:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB & CCBS): 24,450 → up 25% year-over-year
  • Pending Listings: 4,274 → down 1.7% from last year, up 3% from last month
  • Monthly Sales: 6,141 → up 12% year-over-year
  • Average $/Sq. Ft.: $287.14 → up 0.8% from last year
  • Median Price: $454,000 → up 2.7% year-over-year

It’s a Reset Month — and Buyers Are Back in the Driver’s Seat

September gave the market a quick boost when interest rates dipped for a couple of weeks, but the momentum slowed once rates ticked back up. What we’re seeing now is a market in reset mode — steady but cautious.

Buyers are clearly in control right now. Demand is improving, but it’s still touch and go, and there’s a noticeable amount of hesitation in the air.

Many homes are going under contract only to fall out during the inspection period — and those failed escrows are reflected in the Cromford data. Buyers are more demanding and less forgiving than they were a year or two ago.

The New Buyer Mindset

Today’s buyers feel the market is soft — and they’re acting accordingly:

  • Expecting broker compensation as part of the negotiation
  • Requesting seller-paid closing costs more frequently
  • Passing on homes that need major repairs or upgrades

This isn’t a “buy anything and it’ll sell” market anymore. It’s a condition, pricing, and presentation market. Sellers who understand that are still getting results; those who don’t are watching from the sidelines.

Inventory Keeps Climbing

Inventory rose more than 5% in September and now stands about 25% higher than last year. That’s a healthy increase — and it’s giving buyers plenty of leverage.

For sellers, that means more competition and the need to stand out. Pricing correctly out of the gate matters more than ever because buyers now have the luxury of walking away.

Prices Find Their Footing — But the Mix Matters

After four months of declines, prices ticked back up slightly:

  • Median: $454,000
  • Average: $287 per sq. ft.

However, part of that bump is driven by luxury home sales, which have picked up and nudged averages higher. For most sellers under $1M, it’s better to call this a flat-to-slightly-up market — stable, not surging.

Jonathan’s Take

This month feels like a true market reset. We’re seeing:

  • A more balanced playing field between buyers and sellers
  • Increased inventory giving buyers more options
  • And buyers who are cautious, but ready to act when the right home comes along

The good news is that demand is still there — it just comes with conditions.

If you’re a seller, prepare for tougher negotiations. Expect buyers to ask for closing cost help, rate buydowns, or repairs. If you’re a buyer, this is your moment — you have more choices, more negotiating power, and the ability to buy without the frenzy of 2021–2022.

Final Thoughts

October is shaping up to be a month of balance — and a preview of what a “normal” Phoenix market might finally look like again. It’s not hot, it’s not cold — it’s measured, data-driven, and buyer-focused.

Phoenix Housing Market FAQs – October 2025

1. Is the Phoenix housing market a buyer’s or seller’s market in October 2025?

It’s leaning toward a buyer’s market as inventory rises and sellers face stronger negotiation requests.

2. Why are so many Phoenix homes falling out of contract right now?

More deals are falling through during the inspection period as buyers become cautious and demand repairs or concessions.

3. Are home prices in Phoenix going up or down in fall 2025?

Prices are stabilizing after several months of decline, up slightly from last year due to luxury sales and balanced demand.

4. What is the average home price in Phoenix, Arizona, in October 2025?

The median sale price is around $454,000, and the average price per square foot is about $287.

5. Is now a good time to sell a home in Phoenix?

It can be — if you price correctly and prepare for buyer concessions. Homes in top condition are still moving.

6. How is rising inventory affecting home buyers in Phoenix?

It’s giving buyers more leverage, more options, and the ability to negotiate better terms.

7. What’s driving the Phoenix housing market right now?

Interest rate fluctuations and seasonal demand shifts are shaping activity, with rates playing a key role in buyer motivation.

8. Where can I get an updated market report or home valuation for my area?

Visit the Phoenix Market Report Search page on Dominion Group Properties to view current neighborhood data and trends.

Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Market Updates, Property Management
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Sept. 30, 2025

What a Government Shutdown Could Mean for Your Home Purchase or Sale

How the government shut down affects mortgages

What a Government Shutdown Could Mean for Your Home Purchase or Sale

When you’re buying or selling a home, timing matters. Inspections, financing, insurance, and closing dates all line up like dominoes—and if one falls out of place, the whole deal can get delayed. That’s why it’s important to understand how a government shutdown might ripple into real estate transactions.

Let’s break it down simply so you know what to watch out for.

1. Flood Insurance Could Be a Roadblock

If you’re buying a home in a flood zone, you’ll likely need coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The catch? During a shutdown, NFIP can’t issue new policies or renew existing ones.

  • If you’re a buyer: Closings may be delayed if flood insurance is required and you don’t already have coverage.
  • If you’re a seller: A buyer who needs flood insurance might not be able to close until the program is re-funded.

Tip: Some private flood insurance options are still available. Ask your lender or agent if that’s an option.

2. Federal Worker Paychecks and Loan Approval

If you or your buyer/seller works for the federal government, paychecks may be delayed during a shutdown. That doesn’t mean income is lost (back pay is guaranteed by law), but it does mean lenders could hit pause until they can verify income.

  • If you’re buying: Your loan approval might be delayed if your income can’t be verified.
  • If you’re selling: Be aware that buyers who are federal employees may run into financing hiccups.

3. Loan Processing Delays

Many mortgages require paperwork from federal agencies. During a shutdown, some of these processes slow down:

  • IRS: Tax transcript requests (used to verify income) can get stuck in limbo.
  • USDA Loans: Processing of rural housing loans could be suspended.
  • FHA & VA Loans: Still move forward, but slower because of reduced staffing.

Bottom line: Even if you’re not a federal worker, the shutdown may add time to your loan approval.

4. Courts and Legal Matters

If your transaction involves federal liens, bankruptcy verification, or certain court approvals, these could be delayed if courts run short on funding. It’s not common for most transactions, but it’s something to keep in mind for more complex closings.

5. What’s NOT Affected

Not everything grinds to a halt:

  • Mail delivery (USPS): Keeps running.
  • Existing flood insurance policies: Stay in effect, though you can’t make changes until the program reopens.
  • Social Security and VA benefits: Payments continue, though verification calls may be slower.

How To Prepare for a Government Shutdown as a Buyer or Seller

  1. Check if flood insurance applies: Ask your agent if your home is in a flood zone. If yes, get coverage set up early.
  2. Verify income sources: If you’re a federal employee or your buyer is, talk to your lender ahead of time about how this could affect approval.
  3. Gather documents early: Tax returns, pay stubs, and other proof of income should be submitted as soon as possible in case federal systems slow down.
  4. Build flexibility into timelines: Add extra days in your contract if possible, especially if financing depends on federal verifications.
  5. Stay in close contact: Keep the conversation open with your agent and lender. Quick communication can help avoid surprises.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Will my closing be canceled if the government shuts down?

Not necessarily. Many closings still happen, but delays are more likely if flood insurance or federal income verification is involved.

Can I still get a VA or FHA loan during a shutdown?

Yes, but expect slower processing. Reduced staffing means appraisals and approvals may take longer.

What if my flood insurance expires during the shutdown?

Existing policies remain in force, but you won’t be able to renew or change them until the program reopens.

I’m a federal employee. Can I still buy a home?

Yes, but your lender may wait to verify income. If your paycheck is delayed, that could slow the process.

What can sellers do to protect themselves?

Work closely with your agent to identify buyer financing risks early. Flexibility and communication help prevent deals from falling apart.

Final Thoughts

A government shutdown doesn’t stop all real estate in its tracks, but it can create speed bumps—especially with financing and insurance. The good news is that with the right preparation and communication, most buyers and sellers can still move forward.

Think of it this way: a shutdown is like a storm passing through. It may slow things down temporarily, but the skies clear again. The key is knowing what’s on the horizon so you’re not caught by surprise.

Posted in Home Buying, Home Selling, Market Updates, Real Estate Finance
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Sept. 23, 2025

The Fed Just Cut Rates – But Here’s Why Your 30-Year Mortgage May Not Drop

 

Infographic of Mortgage Rates and Bond Rates

 

Phoenix Mortgage Education

The Fed Just Cut Rates – But Here’s Why Your 30-Year Mortgage May Not Drop

By Jonathan Baer · Dominion Group Properties · Published September 23, 2025

When headlines announce a Federal Reserve rate cut, it’s natural to expect immediate relief on mortgage payments. But here’s the catch: the Fed controls a short-term overnight rate, while most Phoenix buyers rely on long-term fixed mortgages (15- and 30-year). Those long-term rates don’t listen to the Fed the way credit cards or home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) do.

Quick takeaway: Fed cuts typically help variable/short-term borrowing (like HELOCs) more directly than fixed 30-year mortgages. Long-term mortgage rates are driven primarily by the bond market, inflation expectations, and the overall economy.

What the Fed Actually Controls

The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other. This short-term benchmark influences:

  • Credit card APRs
  • Auto loans
  • HELOCs and some adjustable-rate loans

When the Fed cuts, these borrowing costs can adjust relatively quickly. That’s why homeowners in Phoenix often see HELOC payments respond sooner than fixed mortgage payments.

Why 30-Year Mortgage Rates Dance to a Different Beat

Fixed mortgage rates track the bond market, not the Fed’s short-term setting. In particular, they often move with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the pricing of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Investors demand a certain return to hold long-dated assets. If they expect:

  • Higher inflation → they demand higher yields → mortgage rates tend to rise.
  • Stronger growth (solid jobs, spending) → higher yields → higher mortgage rates.
  • Slowing growth or lower inflation → yields can fall → mortgage rates may ease.

In short, mortgage rates reflect the market’s collective outlook for inflation and growth over many years—not just next month’s Fed meeting.

Why a Fed Cut Might Not Lower Your Mortgage Rate

Imagine the Fed cuts because growth is cooling. If investors think inflation will still be sticky, or government borrowing needs are large, they may keep demanding higher long-term yields. Result: 30-year mortgage rates may stay elevated even after a cut. Conversely, if inflation expectations fall and recession odds rise, long-term yields can decline—with or without a fresh Fed move.

Where a Fed Cut Does Help: HELOCs & ARMs

HELOCs and many adjustable-rate loans reference short-term benchmarks that respond more directly to Fed policy. If you’re planning renovations, consolidating debt, or need flexible access to equity, a lower Fed funds rate can translate into meaningfully lower HELOC payments.

Smart Moves for Phoenix Buyers & Owners

  1. Don’t wait indefinitely for the “perfect” rate. Phoenix is a mosaic of micro-markets; the right home and location often matter more than chasing a quarter-point.
  2. Focus on payment and timeline. If rates fall later, refinancing can reset your cost of funds.
  3. Compare loan types. Depending on your horizon, a well-structured ARM could make sense; for others, a fixed term offers peace of mind.
  4. Consider a HELOC for projects. Fed cuts tend to help here first.
  5. Use local comps. Our valley has distinct submarkets—run hyper-local comps to protect your negotiating position.

FAQs: Fed Cuts & Mortgage Rates

Do Fed rate cuts lower mortgage rates?

Not directly. The Fed sets a short-term overnight rate. 30-year mortgage rates respond more to the bond market’s view on inflation and growth.

Which loans benefit most from Fed cuts?

Short-term and variable-rate products—like credit cards and HELOCs—tend to adjust faster than long-term fixed mortgages.

What drives 30-year mortgage rates?

The 10-year Treasury yield, investor demand for MBS, inflation expectations, employment data, and global growth/risk sentiment.

Should I wait to buy until rates fall?

It depends on your goals and timing. You can refinance if rates drop, but missed opportunities or higher prices in your target neighborhood can outweigh a future rate improvement.

Book a quick strategy call

Questions? Call/Text 623-252-1424 or email jon.baer@dgpaz.com.

Jonathan Baer · Dominion Group Properties · Homes, Land and Property Management
Designated Broker | ADRE BR5717390000 · ABS, SRS, GREEN, E-Pro, CSSN

Service Area: All of Maricopa County; Phoenix, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Carefree, Anthem, Desert Hills, New River, Peoria; plus Prescott, Sedona, Heber-Overgaard & Show Low.

Posted in Home Buying, Market Updates, Real Estate Finance
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